Sunday, December 23, 2018

Strategos Series: Cancon 2018- Notes


See the Matrix.


"Cave ab homine unius libri" ("Beware the man of one book")

No two conflicts are exactly the same so history alone will never provide an exact answer to current and future problems. At the same time, the lessons and principles from studying the past will give people the tools they need to analyse problems as they move forward.

… The problem with being too busy to read is that you learn by experience (or by your men’s experience), i.e. the hard way. By reading, you learn through others’ experiences, generally a better way to do business…

“No such thing as ‘lessons learned’.  There are lessons.  It’s only LEARNED when you incorporate it into your (revised) doctrine.”

-       DISCLAIMER:
o   Written to solidify thoughts specific to my experience and my observation of the experiences of the other club members who attended
o   May be irrelevant to you
o   You’re probably a better player than me and don’t require this either


Let's get technical.

ACRONYMS
EN- Enemy
FR- Friendly
COG- Centre of gravity- the critical point once hit will break the enemy
CC- critical capabilities
CV- critical vulnerabilities
COA- course of action
MLCOA/ MDCOA- most likely/ most dangerous COA


THE PROBLEM WITH LIST COMPARISON/ TOURNAMENT REPORTING
-       not just with “net listing”
-       problem includes successful lists between tournaments e.g. Caledonian Highlander Army

Fighting Power COMPONENTS
1)   Moral Component (irrelevant in Infinity)
2)   Conceptual components
a)    Army type of play – generally doesn’t change too much.
3)   Physical components
a)    LI/ MI/ HI/ TAG/ Sk/ WB- mix can change but generally leans certain ways.
4)   Contextual component-
a)    VERY IMPORTANT FOR CANCON2018 due to the novel nature of the missions.
b)   NEED A CONTEXT- not a memoir (reflects what people are biased to want-  creates a mythology NOT history and thus unable to learn useful lessons). E.g. Tohaa amazing and OP. 

USARF at Cancon 2018 with my match ups and my tables is NOT USARF in your meta.  Contextual variables:  
1.     List composition (2 lists)
2.     Player (67 opponents)
3.     Mission (5 missions which are novel even for ITS)
4.     Terrain (34 tables of varying density, elevation, saturation zones)


Theory time.
Conceptual Philosophies Learned POST CANCON2018

1.    WESTERN WAY OF WAR
a.     Massed rank heavy infantry forced battle- cultural roots in Greek Hoplite battles.  Marathon, Guagamela, Zama, Tours, Crecy, Napoleonic Wars, Normandy, Ardennes, Korea, Fallujah- Operation Al Fajr.
b.     SEEKS OUT COMBAT repeatedly
i)     E.g. Tom’s Dragao or HI Link team. 
ii)    Generally well understood and well executed by everyone.

2.    EASTERN WAY OF WAR
a.     AVOIDS COMBAT to preserve combat power for ONLY selected window
                                               i.     Stay camouflaged/ off the board/ in total cover
b.     Subdue the EN without fighting
                                               i.     Interpret to mean- ‘winning’ the Reactive Turn
1.     Wasting EN order pool
2.     Simultaneously preserving combat power- smoke/ flash pulse (usually on cheap expendable models)
c.      Avoid being maneuvered-
                                               i.     Interpret: you control movement around the battlefield NOT the EN. 
1.     Your active- you smoke and move as you wish. 
2.     Your reactive- camo markers, ambush camo, sniper positions/ flash pulse positions channeling EN movement.
d.     Combination of ZHENG (normal direct force) and QI (extraordinary, indirect force) to achieve strategy
                                               i.     ZHENG: Unidron link team ML/ sniper/ FO for long range engagement. 
                                              ii.     QI:  Fractaa/ Dr. Worm (high mobility double G:sync and high WIP) to selectively pick off objectives.

e.     Limited understanding and usage generally
                                               i.      red mist” cheerleader hunting that still loses you mission
                                              ii.     When used consciously or intuitively V. EFFECTIVE

3.    “SHOCK ACTION”
a.     Shape the battle in your favour in opening a new front- using SELECTIVE AGGRESSIVE ATTRITION.

a.     Achieve surprise- AD, IMP, TO/ HD, CAM to a lesser degree, hypermobility (Bikes/smoke/ superjump/ climbing plus/ smoke+MSV2).
                                               i.     Delay or bypass detection- the typical “detection to contact” idea of the LINEAR engagement- i.e. my linked HMG walks to a corner, face to faces, and continues walking into the next enemy and so on.
1.     Also described as “Conventional linear engagement”
                                              ii.     Uses unexpected avenues of approach.
b.     Maneuover with speed and aggression. 
                                               i.     Force the enemy to divide force and attention-
1.     Multiple threats that can’t be left alone
2.     Seek to trade size for disproportionate effect… piece trade.  E.g. 11 point Desperado killing three cheerleaders is a reasonable trade.
3.     If only one point available to attack- then apply overwhelming force (Burst/ BS supremacy)
                                              ii.     And not just in your active, think about sustaining this in the enemy reactive.
1.     EG. Don’t rambo VZ until he dies- kill 2-3 things and then go on suppression if able or just hide.
2.     EG. Don’t Rambo your Desperado- throw smoke- ride into it and wait out for the EN active turn to risk chain rifle templates
c.      Mass forces and fire power. 
                                               i.     Hit the decisive points- what’s decisive?  The EN critical vulnerabilities/ capabilities- their COG. 
1.     How do you learn what an enemy is capable of?  Watch matches/ read forums.
2.     Experience. 
                                              ii.     Selective attrition is the key.
d.     Always suspect a REVERSE- expect a “SURPRISE ATTACK” and consciously spend last orders to guard against it.

4.    Multiple Small Units vs. “Death-Star”
a.     Conceptually-
                                               i.     Mobility for position:
1.     Chaos/ Eldar in BFG. 
2.     MSU (Rebels) vs. Large ships (ISDs) in Star Wars Armada. 
3.     “Ambush” string of activations in Star Wars Destiny CCG that disrupt the I-go-U-go mechanic.
4.     MSU Cavalry (Dark Elf/ HE) in WH 6Ed. 
                                              ii.     Suffer a slower degrade from attrition with ability to still hurt the EN:
1.     40K 8th Ed- Imperial Guard infantry swarm- everything wounds on a 6- massed dice (even poorly stats like Guardsmen)- will cause wounds.
b.     Primacy of “MANEUVER” over individual “overkill” power.
c.      A well placed swarm coupled with SHOCK ACTION
                                               i.     Avoid traditional attritional battle (which you’ll probably lose) but net you BIG WINS (dead TAG) without losing your own heavy hitter (Tankhunter, Spetz, Blackjack).
-       EG. CHA- soft defence with SAS camouflage markers, Caterans, SG ML

5.    HOW TO THINK ABOUT PLAYING A MISSION….
a.     Do the mission
b.     Steps concerning deployment:
                                               i.     Observation/ cover (good for you). 
1.     Look for a good castle- test with silhouettes.
2.     Look for good spots to ARO into the enemy for your infiltrators and maybe some prospective vantage points for a high burst hard active piece.
                                              ii.     Note Obstacles to advancing (enemy ARO pieces and camo) and retreating (open areas in your deployment zone)
                                            iii.     Key terrain/ vital terrain (if they own that- you lose the mission or they destroy you in ARO from that position)
1.     Contest these areas!
                                            iv.     Avenues of approach to your position – structure your ARO defense so that each approach risks ARO.
c.     Enemy
                                               i.     Critical capabilities
1.     COG (centre of gravity)- highest danger attack piece
2.     Secondary dedicated attack piece
3.     ARO pieces
4.     Specialists
5.     Faction/ list specific- no LOL for Morats.
                                              ii.     Critical vulnerabilities
1.     Lieutenant
2.     COG- attack piece weaknesses
3.     Specialists
4.     Datatracker
5.     Faction/ list specific…. E.g. Morats no retreat (though Bit/ Kiss, Ikadrons, Dr Worm do!)
                                            iii.     MLCOA- most likely course of action
                                            iv.     MDCOA- most dangerous course of action
d.    Mission analysis
                                               i.     Mission?
1.     Specified TASK
2.     Implied TASK per army component- Highly Classifed is best example.
3.     COG- concept- whats the most important thing- e.g. Highly Classified = specialists AND the Lt to let them do what they need to do.
a.     CC
                                                                                                     i.     Primary attack piece- task
                                                                                                    ii.     Secondary attack pieces- task
                                                                                                  iii.     ARO- task
                                                                                                  iv.     Specialists- task
                                              ii.     Critical vulnerability- how will I protect….
1.     Lt.
2.     COG- attack piece weaknesses
3.     Specialists
4.     Datatracker
e.     COA
                                               i.     Develop 2 COAs- plan A and plan B- they both have to be viable
1.     Terrain/ deployment will shape
2.     Impact likely enemy actions will have and how easily disrupted.


Great concepts... tactics time!

Tactical Lessons

1. The only good ARO defense is a link team of 4 better 5- SSL2 and +3 BS. 
a.      Linked FO- double flash pulse

2.     The only good ARO defense is TO/ Hidden deploy
a.     Snipers/ ML
3.     Protect your “castle” defense once long range attack pieces are neutralized
a.     stand figures with rifles up to prevent close range assault from EN maneuver elements (AD and infiltrators).

4.     ARO is ONLY to slow the enemy- expect it to die but let the enemy burn their resources and possibly lose something along the way.  “If it’s showing in the enemy active- it’s going to die”- Norton.

5.     Caterans are active pieces- probably not reactive.  Irregular to get their one shot off and then expect to die.

6. Onyx- evo overclock/ command token- and every flash pulse bot.  Every ARO the enemy will face is 2 burst.  It will stop hyper aggressive armies.  Blinding is to stop Rambo.  NOT ATTRITIONAL THINKING!!
a.     Eastern thinking- strategic defense, soft retreat- preserve combat power by subduing without killing (double flash pulses)
b.     Eastern- FURTHER OWN STRATEGY and ATTACK EN STRATEGY
                                               i.     Flash pulse on 8 point R drone- attacks EN strategy (Rambo)
                                              ii.     Dr. Worm helper bots providing “alert” to allow dropping HD units at end of EN turn to increase order pool size in FR turn.
                                            iii.     Discourage frontal attack piece trading with Unidron long range link.  – attack EN attritional strategy
                                            iv.     Note not equipped with high burst weaponry- it’s role is not to grind the enemy out and force an exploitation
                                              v.     Fractaa/ Bit and Kiss allow for SELECTIVE application of force in favourable conditions ONLY.  Otherwise kept away. 
                                            vi.     ??? Vulnerability to “hyper”-Western warfare- can be defeated by Dragao/ Jotum lists.

c.      Western thinking- attack on line and exploit breakthrough
                                               i.     Grunt link HMG
                                              ii.     Morat link HMG with Anyat
                                            iii.     HI link team
                                            iv.     Desperado double envelopment

7. Deployment- SILHOUETTE FIRST- then place your figures.  Silhouettes on camo markers to ensure good views on target.

8. Keep track of your opponents army (don’t put them in retreat).  Similarly- if losing- expose your men to go into retreat (especially if you have 3 command tokens)- to go hard for a minor win.

       9. Haqq- if Strategos L3- expect the IMP. 
a.     Likely to win the Lt. roll and elect to go first and alpha strike

10. IMPERSONATOR defense
a.     Double layer defence- and utilize Sixth Sense Level 1
                                               i.     Detect to drop from IMP1 to IMP2
                                              ii.     Second line templates to splash
b.     Accept they will likely kill their target but stop them from doing any damn more!

15. FO Artillery Strike on link teams.
a.     Spec FIRST- allow to spread the template.  -3 range (40”), +3 targeted, targeted ignores -6 for speculative (hit on flats typically).  Enemy dodges on -3 for template attack from out of LOF.
b.     Once original target is spread out- then go guided (5 orders)
c.      Co-ordinate spec fire allows the “Imperial guard manticore” petalling of pie plates centred touching the targeted figure, but needs a specific build.

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